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Sunday, October 17, 2004

Week Six Fix

OK, so I was out all morning and I'm writing this as of late first quarter/early second quarter of the early Sunday games. I'm a cheater, fine. At least I can't be accused of encouraging sports betting this week since you can't possibly bet according to the following picks as of now, not that you would want to anyway.

I'll be wagering at Stations today...

San Francisco (+10) over NY Jets, cover but lose

Ten points seems a lot, given how close a call the Jets had at home against the hapless Bills last week and how hot San Fran got passing late in the Cardinals game, which may have some carry over. Yet I'm still expecting a battle of undefeateds when the Jets come to New England next week.

Philadelphia (-10) over Carolina

Revenge, etc. Eagles look better than last year, Panthers worse, hence the result.

Kansas City (-2.5) over Jacksonville

After hot start for the Jags and weak start for the Chiefs, things seem to be turning around for both.

Atlanta (-5.5) over San Diego

Battle of my top two fantasy football picks: LaDainian Tomlinson, who has been producing, and Michael Vick, who has not. If you claim you picked these two teams to be playoff contenders, you're lying.

Buffalo (-5.5) over Miami

Damn, one of these teams is going to have to get a win this week. Buffalo is at home and somewhat less inept offensively, given that both Dolphins QBs were hurt against the Pats last week.

Washington (+1.5) over Chicago to cover and win the game

George Michael keeps referring to the 1983 Redskins, a Joe Gibbs-coached team that started 0-5 but turned it around after a win at Chicago in the sixth game--like I can remember 1983. This is what's on TV here, rather than the infinitely more interesting Patriots-Seahawks tilt.

Cleveland (-2.5) over Cincinnati

No strong feelings on these bland squads, so I'll go with the home team.

New England (-3) over Seattle

Damn you, Seahawks, for messing up my record last week. You know the Patriots are charmed when Brady throws for under 80 yards and they still beat Miami by two touchdowns.

Green Bay (+2.5) over Detroit to cover and win

Everyone's down on the Pack and high on the Lions these days. I still have a hard time accepting that those trends won't reverse themselves.

Houston (+6) over Tennessee to cover yet lose

I'm just picking the Texans every week for kicks at this point. At least now I'm recognizing that they will kill me with a heartbreaking loss, as was the case last week.

Oakland (+2.5) over Denver to cover and win

Broncos, while 4-1, have eked out three-point wins the last two weeks against Tampa and Carolina. This thing will be very close, and I'll take a home team under those conditions.

Pittsburgh (+3) over Dallas to cover and win

I'm a little uneasy taking the rookie QB on the road against a Parcells team. But Pittsburgh has way more offensive talent than the Cowboys and I'm hoping that wins out.

Minnesota (-4) over New Orleans

How is Jim Haslett still employed?

St. Louis (-6.5) over Tampa Bay

Is it safe to pick the Rams again? I've gone against them twice in a row on the road, now they're back home facing the Bucs and their new QB Brian Griese. They have to win this, right?

Last week: 7-6 straight up, 6-7 against the spread. Stupidly, I forgot to pick the san Diego-Jacksonville game.

Also, I lost all three overtime games. Shouldn't I get some credit for correctly picking against the spread, at least, when a game goes into overtime? I took Houston and the points (+4) against Minnesota last week, and it went to OT, so they were even after 60 minutes. Can't that count as if the game were an even line? Then the Vikings got an OT touchdown for a six-point final margin, and I lost against the spread, whereas if the game had been less close, and Minnesota had, say, won by a field goal in regulation, I would've won against the spread. (The same thing could apply to my pick of Arizona, giving one point, at San Francisco; the Cards lost 31-28 in overtime.)