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Tuesday, November 04, 2003

Primary Season: Helpful or Hurtful?

Broder's new column argues that the Democratic field has no clear leader and thus having the nominee emerge by mid-March puts the party at a disadvantage: "This schedule may be the best possible break for a vulnerable-looking president." By contrast, the AP reports (via Political Wire) that chief Bush strategist Matt Dowd has made public a memo he's circulating that lowers expectations for the president in early '04, claiming "President Bush will likely fall behind in polls to whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee."

My view is that the status of the economy and Iraq in five months will have far more to do with the poll numbers we see than any aspect of the primary schedule.